Spring 1997
A 30-Year Assessment of the Media Planning Literature
Yorgo Pasadeos (Ph.D, The university of Texas at Austin) is professor
and graduate coordinator at the Vepartmentof Advertising & Public Kelahons,
The university of Alabama.
Arnold Barban (Ph.D, The University of Texas at Aushn) is professor
and chairman of the Vepartment of Advertising& Public Relahons, The
University of Alabama.
Huiulc Yi (Ph.D, The university of Alabama) is on the faculty of Yeungnam
university in South Korea.
Bong-Hyun Kirn (Ph.D, The University of Alabama) is with the Diamond
Advertising Agency in Seoul, South Korea.
The authors would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for insightful
comments.
Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertismg, Volume 19, Number
1 (Spring 1997).
24
fluential was a 1961 article by Agostini on the development of a media
selection model. Since then, research into media planning has grown steadily,
evidenced by the more than 120 articles listed in a reviewof the media
modeling literature by Leckenby and Ju(1990). More recently, Ha (1995)
assessed theconceptualization and theoretical implications of media models
on the research of advertising effects (p.3).
Turk and Katz (1992) reviewed advertising mediapractices from 1985
to 1991. In looking to the future,these authors observed that "[a]lthough
the role ofadvertising overall seems likely to diminish somewhat as we
move towards the next century, at leastrelative to other marketing communication
areaswithin advertising, the part played by media is likelyto continue
to grow in importance and strength" (p.30). Thus, what began in the late
1950s is likely tocontinue an upward trend in the near future. Turkand
Katz (1992) charted "the events and developmentsthat have shaped the emergence
of media strategy asa keystone in marketing operations during the late1980s
and early '9Os" (p. 19). Among other things,these authors showed that the
growth of sales promotion vis a vis advertising, shifting consumer use
ofmedia leading to greater audience fragmentation, thegrowth of new media
audience methodologies andmeasurements, and the "emergence of customizedcombinations
of different media, different merchandising, and/or sales promotion devices"
(p. 30) haveproduced a notable impact on media planning andbuying operations.
Such changes point to the growing recognition of the media function as
essential inunderstanding and planning advertising.
Purpose of the study
In their overview of advertising media, Turk andKatz (1992) relied
on trade and academic sources toprovide a picture of where the practice
of ad mediahas been and speculated about where it may beheaded. It would
be worthwhile to also ascertain thestatus of ad media scholarship. In the
present study,we sought to identify the incidence of specific researchstreams
of the scholarly media-planning literature,and the authors who had made
an impact on thisliterature. Since we looked at media planning as anacademic
discipline and thus from an academic/research perspective, "the media planning
literature"here refers to what has been published in academicjournals and
in academic/practitioner journals. Thisis not meant to discount the importance
of the media
Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising_
related work discussed by numerous practitioners inbooks and trade
publications.
A discipline normally grows around a core of publications disseminating
research findings, which, inturn, provide inspiration for further research.
Thus,over the years a field of study develops a body ofliterature, which
itself can be investigated to ascertainpatterns of growth, the advent of
various schools ofthought and the building of a knowledge base. Inprofessional
fields (e.g., advertising) and sub-fields(e.g., media planning) an investigation
of the existingliterature also offers insights into the separate contributions
of academics and practitioners, as well as intothe practical implications
of the research efforts represented in the literature. To date, the various
studiesthat have investigated the advertising literature ingeneral have
not really touched on media planning inany detail. The primary focus of
such studies has beenon topics such as article productivity (e.g., Barry
1988),the study of citations (e.g., Pasadeos 1985), specificjournals (e.g.,
Muncy 1991) or research methodology(e.g., Yale and Gilly 1988). At the
same time, existingreviews of the media planning literature have focusedon
narrow topical areas of media planning. For example, Kinnear et al. (1986)
reviewed the measurement of magazine audiences, while Leckenby and Ju(1990)
reviewed media selection models, andGuggenheim (1983) investigated research
issues inmedia planning.
The present study has aspired to offer a more comprehensive view of
the media planning literature. Tothis end, advertising, marketing and communicationjournals
were scanned to arrive at a large list of mediaplanning articles published
during the last three decades. Here we report on findings of a content
analysis of these articles. The following research questionsguided the
study:
(1) On what topics has advertising media research focused? Have there
been changes over the years? Reviews of the research literature in media
planningshow that some attention has been paid to modelingand to certain
research issues. Little has been done toinvestigate the incidence of research
on all mediaplanning topics.
(2) To what extent is the media planning literature databased or empiricnl
in nature? Media planning is the mostquantitative of all subfields of advertising.
We wantedto see to what extent this is reflected in the scholarlyliterature.
(3) How have practitioners and academicians from different disciplines
contributed to the literature? Practitioners' motivations for research
stem from a need to
Spring 1997
make sound decisions in the marketplace; academicians' motivations
often push them toward "basic"research. We wanted to find out to what extent
theseapproaches would be reflected in the types of ad media articles written
by practitioners and academicians.Since advertising scholars are scattered
across the academic landscape, with large concentrations in communication
and business disciplines, we also wantedto find out to what extent media-planning
researcherswere typified by academic affiliation.
(4) What specific works and which individuals have madean impact on
the media planing literature? Studies ofadvertising scholarship have almost
always investigated the total literature of advertising. Accordingly,their
findings have identified general patterns. In thisstudy, we adopted a sharper
focus, separating themedia planning literature from all other writings
onadvertising so we could identify specific influences onthe literature
of media planning.
Method
We analyzed media planning articles to investigatethe first three research
questions. We analyzed citations (i.e., references) of media planning articles
toinvestigate the fourth research question.
Time period studied
The study covers a 30-year period, 1962-1991. Thisperiod was selected
for three reasons:
(1) Few media planning articles appeared in marketing, advertising
or communication journals before1962. Agostini's seminal article was published
the previous year. Thus, 1962 was a good year to start theperiod to be
studied. (2) At the start of data collection,1991 was the latest complete
year for which issues ofadvertising journals were available in our libraries.(3)
The thirty year period allows for temporal comparisons over thirty years
broken down into threedecades: 1962-71, 1972-81, 1982-91.
Selection of media planning articles
To be included in this study, an article had to treatsome aspect of
media decision-making. That is, thearticle's content dealt with how the
advertising mediafunction has been performed by advertisers or howthe function
can be improved. Thus, this type of classification schema focused on the
micro area of deciSion making. Macro articles (e.g., the role of advertis~ng
media in society) were included only if explicit
25
implications for media decisions were made. In addition, an article
also had to be judged as having themedia content as a major focus of the
paper, or at leastco-equal with one or more other topics. For example,an
article focusing primarily on an area of advertisingother than media decisions
(e.g., message strategy),but where media implications were a minor consideration,
would not be included. Also not included wereeditorials and commentaries;
introductory articles tospecial and/or thematic issues; responses and rejoinders
(if they did not go beyond discussing what wasin the original article);
"profiles" of individuals; andbook reviews. Research notes and "research-in-brief"articles
were included if they met the above criteria.
All media planning articles fitting the above definition and appearing
in the following publications during the period under study were content
analyzed:Journal of Advertising Research (JAR, available from1962); Journal
of Marketing (JM, available from 1962);Journalism Qunrterly (JQ, available
from 1962); Journalof Marketing Research (JMR, established in 1964); Journal
of Advertising (JA, established in 1972); Journal ofCurrent Issues and
Research in Advertising (JCIRA, established as CIRA in 1978); Journal of
Media Planning(JMP, published 1986-1994). We excluded journals thathad
(1) published fewer than six media planning articles during the 30-year
period (e.g., Newspaper Resenrch Journal, Journal of Broadcasting ~ Electronic
Medin, Operations Research), and (2) had not published atleast one media-planning
article during each of thethree 10-year periods (that they were in existence).
Content analysis of articles
All selected media planning articles were coded foreach of the following
variables:
(1) Publication (the above list).(2) Year of Publication (1962-1991).
(3) Author. Authors were coded according to thesecategories: Practitioner;
Academician_marketing/business; Academician_communication; Academician_other;
Other/not stated.
(4) Type of article. The following categories wereused:
~ Empirical research. Data-based articles reporting on primary or secondary
research efforts.Theoretical articles were included in this category if
they were data-based.
~ Tl~eoretical. Non-data-based articles that builton previous research
and/or practice to offertheoretical propositions about media plannmg.
26
~ Review. Comprehensive reviews of the media planning literature, as
well as limited reviews of a particular area of media planning.* Posit~on
paper. Articles that offered an approach to or viewpoint on the practice
of media planning (more than merely editorial orcommentary, which were
not coded). Alsoincluded were articles offering an assessmentof the status
of one or more aspects of mediaplanning.
~ Other. Media planning articles that couldnot be logically placed
in a category above.
(5) Main focus of article. Because only a minorityof the articles were
found to have focused ona single well-defined topic, initially we triedto
code for multiple topics. But this codingprocedure failed to obtain an
acceptable levelof inter-coder agreement. Thus, we decidedto code for only
the main focus of each article,a procedure that resulted in a reliable
codingscheme. The following topic categories wereused:
~ General appraisal of media. General appraisalsof media planning,
and/or articles articulating needs for new definitions of media in general.
~ Research methods. Articles focusing primarily on one or more specific
research methodsand/or techniques that contribute to an understanding of
media decision-making (e.g.,an article whose main focus is the methodology
used by a particular research company).~ Media in relation to marketing:
Relating themedia function to a marketing consideration.~ Quantitative
media selection models: The following subcategories were used:
_ Exposure distribution models: (e.g., beta-binomial, Metheringham).
_ Comprehensive media models: (e.g., linear programming, ADMOD).
Both of the above or other quantitative models.
* Qualitative selection issues: Articles focusingon the selection of
media types or vehiclesbased on subjective and other qualitative features
of vehicles (e.g., authority, prestige orcontent).
~ Strategic issues. The following subcategorieswere used:
Continuity and scheduling: Strategy of the"timing" aspect of media
decision making.
Targeting: Setting target markets or targetaudiences for a media plan.
Journa l of Current Issues and Research in Advertising
_ Mix of media types: The strategy of choosinga mixture of different
media types and/orvehicles; media weighting, media allocation.
_ Responsefunctions: Recall of advertising thatcan be measured with
different forms of media strategy (e.g., ARF, and hierarchy of effects).
_ Budgeting: Budget-setting as the primaryelement in media strategy.
_ Contingency planning/planning alternatives:Where alternatives are
taken into accountbased on contingencies (e.g., changes in economic conditions
over the planning period).
_ Other: Strategic issues not classified above.
Combination of the above: More than one issue, with each topic covered
equally.
~ Tactical issues: Media decisions at the tacticallevel (e.g., how
to decide on "the position"within a vehicle, use of special advertisingunits,
such as gatefolds, pop-ups, scent ads,etc.).
~ Mncro issues: Articles focusing primarily onmacro issues (broad society-based)
that havemicro implications (e.g., how cultural normsmight affect media
plans).
~ Media consumption issues: Media usage articles (e.g., magazine readership
behavior).
~ Media supplier behavior: Articles focusing primarily on the business
structure of mediatypes and how such behavior influences media buyers (e.g.,
media suppliers setting adrates and their effect on profit maximization).~
Media characteristics: Descriptions and analyses of attributes of media
types and trends.
~ Others: All others which were not defined inthe categories above.
~ Combinations: Multiple topics, with each topiccovered equally in
the article.
Citation analysis
Citation analysis is a bibliometric method that focuses on the published
citation as its unit of analysis(e.g., Culnan 1986; Pasadeos 1985; Tankard,
Changand Tsang 1984). Because it asks questions of the "whocites whom?"
kind, citation analysis offers researchers information about which types
of publications,what specific publications, which authors and whichschools
of thought and research streams have beeninfluential in a particular literature.
Over a long timeperiod, citation analyses also offer the opportunity ofidentifying
trends and enduring works within a lit
1
Spring 1997
27
erasure. In this study, citation analysis helped us investigate which
published works and authors haveinfluenced the media planning research
literature.Analyzing all the citations in all media planning articles published
during the 30-year period would haverequired an unnecessarily huge coding
operation. Forpurposes of this study, a citation analysis was done ofmedia
planning articles published during the last fouryears of each of the three
10-year periods. Most of thecitation studies we consulted before undertaking
thisinvestigation have focused on periods shorter thanfour years. For example,
Tankard et al. (1984) andPasadeos (1985) coded citations for three-year
periods. We picked the last four years in each 10-yearperiod to ensure
that the maximum number of mediaplanning articles would have the chance
of being cited.All citations in the media planning articles publishedin
1968-71, 1978-81 and 1988-91 were coded for eachof the following:
(1) Name(s) of author(s) of cited work.(2) Title of cited work.
(3) Title of publication (coded for books and serialpublications only)
(4) Type of cited work: The following categorieswere used: Journal
article; Book or Book Chapter; Magazine or Newspaper; Conference Presentation
or Proceedings; Thesis or Dissertation;Working Paper; Syndicated Source;
Other.
(5) Year of citing publication and year of citedpublication.
Reliability of the coding scheme
Selection of "media planning articles" from amongall advertising articles
published in the selected journals was accomplished in the following manner:
Threeof the authors worked separately to identify all potentially includable
articles from each journal. In cases ofdisagreement, a final decision to
include or excludean article was made by consensus of all four authors.Categories
for "type of article" and "topic" were developed in two steps. First, a
subsample of 40 articleswas used to develop a draft of the categories (the
40articles were selected from all the journals in the studyexcept JQ, which
had the fewest articles, and from allthree 10-year periods). Then the draft
was applied tomedia planning articles selected from issues of theJournal
of Advertising and CIRA from the last ten years,and the list of categories
was revised. Ninety-six percent of the articles were coded by two coders
(4%were coded by a single coder. Given a high intercoder agreement, only
2 or 3 of the 366 articles may
have been miscoded for, "type of article" and "mainfocus of article).
In more than 85% of the cases the twoauthors were in agreement. This "85%"
representsoverall coder agreement for the two variables thatrequired coder
judgment: Agreement for "type of article" was 93%; agreement for "main
focus of article"was 79% for the 13 main categories (within each of thetwo
categories that had subcategories, agreement washigher than 95% provided
both coders had pickedthat category). We also computed Scott's Pi, a coefficient
of reliability that takes into consideration thenumber of coding categories
for each variable (Scott1955) and for which the formula is Pi = (observedagreement
- expected agreement) / (1- expected agreement). For "type of article,"
Pi was 0.89 and for "mainfocus of article" it was 0.77, both acceptable
figuresfor nominal coding (See Wimmer and Dominick 1994,p. 180). In cases
where there was a disagreement between the two coders, all four authors
got togetherand coded the disputed articles by consensus.
Results and Discussion
Media planning articles
Distrib~`tion of articles: A total of 366 media planningarticles was
coded. Table 1 shows the distribution ofthese articles. JAR had the largest
number of articlesin all three decades (although somewhat fewer in 198291),
averaging 5.8 articles per year (averages werecomputed by dividing the
number of articles by thenumber of years each journal had been publishing).1A
had similar numbers of media planning articles ineach of the last two decades,
averaging 2.2 articles peryear. Most of JCIRA's articles (average= 1.1/year)
werein the third decade; most of JM's articles (average=0.4/year) were
published in 1962-71; most of JMR's articles (average=0.8/year) were published
in the second decade. JQ had the fewest media-planning articles (average=
0.3/year); and JMP, obviously, hadthe largest concentration of media planning
articles(average=15.2/year), all in the third decade. In fact,the effect
of the introduction of JMP in 1986 was adoubling in the number of media
planning articles in1982-91 over the previous decade. The three journalswith
the most articles UAR=174; JMP=91; JA=43) accounted for 84 percent of all
media planning articles.
T!/pes of authors: Table 2 shows that academicianswrote approximately
60% of all media planning articles, with marketing/business scholars accountingfor
most of these articles. In fact, the percentage formarketing/business academics
(39%) is similar to ear
28
Journal of Current Issues and Research in Adveffising
Table 1Distribution of Media Planning Articles
Number of articles
Journal 1962-71 1972-81 1982-91 30-year
Journal of Advertising Research 63 61 50 174 (47 5%)
Journal of Advertising - 22 21 43 (11.7%)
Current Issues & Research in Adv. - 3 13 16 (4.4%)
Journal of Marketing Research 4 10 7 21 (5.7%)
Joumal of Marketing 10 1 1 12 (3.3%)
Joumalism Quarterly 3 1 5 9 (2.5%)
Joumal of Media Planning - - 91 91 (24.9%)
_
TOTAL 80 98 188 366 (100.0%)
Table 2Types of Authors of Media Planning Articles
Author type 1962-71 1972-81 1982-91 30-year
(N8 80) (N= 98) (N=188) (N-366)
Academician 35.3% 75.6% 60.1 % 60.5%
communication 10.1 11.9 26.6 19.1
marketing/business 22.2 61.3 30.3 38.9
other 3.0 2.4 2.6 2.6
Practitioner 64.6 23.8 39.4 39.0
Other/not clear - .6 .7 .6
TOTAL 99.9%* 100.0% 99.9%* 100.1 %*
^rounding error
lier findings of advertising articles authorship by marketing faculty
(37%; Barry 1990, p. 56). Three trendsare clear here:
* The relative number of articles by practitioners decreased considerably
from 1962-71 to1972-81, then increased in 1982-91, largelybecause of the
introduction of JMP, whichcarried a large proportion of articles_approximately
60%_written by practitioners.The Journal of Advertising also had a higherpercentage
of articles by practitioners in itsearly years, 1972-81. Most of the practitionercontributions
in the first 10-year period werein JAR.
* The contribution of non-academics to themedia planing literature
is high, compared toearlier findings of a 20-year study of the Journal
of Advertising, which found that fewer than
10 % of advertising articles in general had beenwritten by practitioners
(Muncy 1991, p. 7).* The relative contribution of communicationscholars
publishing media planning piecesincreased steadily over the thirty-year
period.
Types of articles: Table 3 shows that more than threequarters of all
articles reported on empirical researchstudies_and in the case of JA, JAR
and JMR, morethan 90%. These numbers compare favorably withearlier findings
on the incidence of empirical researchin the advertising literature. For
example, Muncy(1991) found that the percentage of empirical articlesin
the Journal of Advertising had grown from under50% in the 1970s to more
than 75% in the 1980s. Onthe other hand, during the past thirty years few
reviews (N =14), and still fewer theory-only pieces (N=6),have been published
in this area. That is not to saythat theory pieces are lacking in the media
planning
Spring 1997
29
Table 3Types of Media Planning Articles
Article type 1962-71 1972-81 1982-91 30-year
(N- 80) (N= 98) (N=188) (N 366)
Empirical research (& theory) 84.8% 90.8% 70.2% 78.9%
Theory only (not empirical) 1.3 1.0 2.1 1.6
Review article 6.3 2.0 3.7 3.8
Position paper 7.6 6.1 19.7 13.4
Other - - 4.3 2.2
TOTAL 100.0% 99.9%*
1 00.0%
99.9%*
_rounding error
Table 4
Primary Focus of Media Planning Articles
Article focus 1962-71 1972-81 1982-91 30-year
(N= 80) (N= 98) (N=188) (N=366)
Appraisal of media 6.3% 7.1 % 11.2% 9.0%
Research methods 26.6 13.3 15.4 17.3
Media in relation to marketing 3.8 - 7.4 4.7
Media selection models 32.9 20.4 11.6 18.6
exposure distribution models 13.9 8.2 7.4 9.0
comprehensive models - _ .5 .3
bosh/other quantitative 19.0 12.2 3.7 9.3
Qualitative media selection 5.1 2.0 3.7 3.6
Strategic issues 19.0 33.7 21.4 24.0
continuity/scheduling 5.1 10.2 5.9 6.8
targeting 2.5 14.3 3.7 6.3
media mix 3.8 3.1 5.3 4.4
response functions - 3.1 2.7 2.2
budgeting 6.3 1.0 1.1 2.2
other/combination 1.3 2.0 2.7 21
Tactical issues 2.5 - .5 .8
Macro issues 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.4
Media consumption 1.3 10.2 8.5 7.4
Media supplier behavior - 1.0 2.7 1.6
Media characteristics 1.3 6.1 5.9 4.9
Other - 5.1 9.1 6.0
Combination - - 1.1 .5
TOTAL 100.1%* 99.9%- 100.1%* 99.8%*
_ rounding error
30
Journal of Current Issues and Research in Adveffising
literature. Many data-based articles contained longtheoretical discussions.
Notably, the relative number of articles in the "position paper" category
increased from less than 10%of all media planning articles in the first
two decadesto 20% in the third decade, because of the greaterincidence
of such articles in JMP (the only publicationwith less than 50% "research"
articles) and most ofthese "position papers" were written by practitioners(the
same JMP-practitioner pattern accounted for theincrease in the "other"
category in 1982-91). The 14"review" articles were concentrated in JAR
(6), CIRA(4) and JMP (4). The data also revealed that 92% ofacademicians,
but only 72% of practitioners, had written "research" articles. On the
other hand, three out offour position papers were written by practitioners.
Article topics: Most reviews (64%) and position papers (57%) were on
one of two topics: (a) generalappraisal of media and (b) research methods.
A complete topics list is in Table 4, which shows the mainfocus of coded
articles. A majority of articles over the30-year period were found to have
dealt primarilywith (a) strategic issues, (b) modeling or (c) researchmethods.
A closer look at these three topic areas over thethree decades revealed
several patterns:
* The relative number of modeling articlesfell by more than half, from
33% in 1962-71 to12% in 1982-91. Qualitative selection issuesalso were
found to have received relativelyless attention in the second and third
decades.* The relative number of strategy articles increased considerably
from 1962-71 to 1972-81(chiefly because of an increase in continuity/scheduling
and targeting articles), but thendecreased notably in the last decade (chieflybecause
of decreases in the same two subcategories).
* Budgeting was a primary topic of mediaplanning research only in the
first decade.
* The relative number of methodological articles fell by half from
1962-71 (27%) to 197281 (13%), then increased slightly in the lastdecade
(15%).
* Our data also indicate that, generally speaking, media planning researchers
focused on agreater variety of topics in the last two decades than in the
first decade. The three major topical categories_strategy, modeling, research
methods_accounted for almost 80%of all articles in the first decade, but
for lessthan 50% in the third decade.
* Finally, the larger incidence of "general media appraisal" articles
in the third decade(11.2%) is attributable to the fact that JMP hadpublished
a relatively large number of sucharticles. Again, most of these articles
werewritten by practitioner-authors.
Media planning citations
Types of citations: The 39 articles published in thefour-year period
from 1968 to 1971 had 190 citations.The 58 articles published in the four-year
period from1978 to 1981 had 666 citations. The 138 articles published in
the four-year period from 1988 to 1991 had1,144 citations. Table 5 shows
the distribution of citations in these media planning articles. In each
of thethree periods, more than 50% of the citations were tojournal articles
and approximately 20% were to books,although these percentages showed slight
decreasesover time. Conversely, citations to magazines andnewspapers (mostly
to Advertising Age, Media/Scopeand The Wall Street Journal), as well as
to conferencesand proceedings, showed a steady increase from thefirst period
to the second and to the third. The jump inthe number of newspaper/magazine
citations in 198891 was largely due to the number of practitioner articles
in JMP.
Age of citntions: Table 5 shows that the mean age ofcitations (year
of citing work minus year of cited work)increased from 6.5 years in the
first period to 9.5 yearsin the second and third periods. This is in line
withwhat would be expected from a relatively young areaof investigation
that grows with time. Further, thefact that there was no increase in the
mean citationage from the second period to the third suggests thata considerable
number of new authors and/or workshave entered this area of investigation
in the thirdperiod.
Most-cited books, journals and magazines: In the firstperiod, no book
was cited more than twice. In thesecond period, no book was cited more
than threetimes. In the third period only two books were citedmore than
three times: Rust's Advertising Media Models (1986) and Naples' Effective
Frequency (1979). Amongserial publications (journals and trade magazines),
JARreceived the largest percentage of citations in each ofthe three periods,
followed by JMR. Table 6 lists serialpublications that were found to have
received morethan 2% of cites in each period. Although academicpublications
predominated in all three periods, thethird period shows a marked increase
in the relativenumber of citations to practitioner-oriented publica
Spring 1997
Table 5Types of Media Planning Citations
. _
Type of citation 1968-71 1978-81 1988-91
(N- 190) (N= 666) (N=1144)
Journal article 59.5% 55.1% 53.2%
Book/book chapter 23.2 22.0 19.4
Magazine/newspaper 6.8 9.2 15.8
Conference/proceedings 3.2 4.6 5.0
Thesis/dissertation 2.1 1.8 2.2
Working paper 1.6 .8 1.4
Syndicated source - 1.1 .7
Other 3.7 5.5 2.3
TOTAL 100.1%* 100.1%* 99.9%.
Mean age of citation 6.5 9.5 9.5
^rounding error
tions. This is partly attributable to the large number ofarticles published
in JMP. Also notable is the fact thatJMR was the second most-cited serial,
although it hadpublished only 21 media planning articles over the30-year
period. Closer scrutiny of the data indicatedthat this phenomenon could
also be attributed to media planning authors citing a number of JMR articlesthat
were on topics other than media planning (thesame could be said, to some
extent, about citations toarticles in Operations Research and Management
Science).
Most-cited works: Table 7 shows the most-cited individual works in
each of the three periods. To obtainthese lists, we cumulated all references
received byeach cited work in each of the three periods; then wesubtracted
all self-citations (citations made by authorsto themselves). All of the
resulting most-cited workswere found to have been published in journals.
Thefive most-cited works are listed for each period (actually, because
of ties, seven articles are listed for thefirst period; six for the second;
eight for the third). Theonly article to make the most-cited works list
in allthree periods was Metheringham's 1964 JAR piece on"Measuring the
Net Cumulative Coverage of a PrintCampaign." Little and Lodish's (1969)
"A Media Planning Calculus" in Operations Research was on the mostcited
lists of the first and second periods.
Nine of the 18 dif~erent articles listed in Table 7 dealdirectly with
models. Another five are indirectly related to the subject of modeling.
The distribution ofthese most-cited articles points to a notable shift
incitations: In the third period, citations are mostly to
31
articles that deal not with the theoretical development of models (e.g.,
Metheringham 1964) but withthe usage patterns of models by advertising
practitioners (e.g., Kreshel et al. 1985; Lancaster et al., 1986;Leckenby
and Kishi 1982; Leckenby and Boyd 1984).Most-cited works of the earlier
two periods had beenconcerned with developing models and explainingmedia
content.
Most-cited allthors: To determine the most-cited authors, we cumulated
references received by each citedauthor in each of the three periods, excluding
selfcitations. In the case of citations with multiple authors, each author
received full citation credit (i.e., nopartial citations). Table 8 (A-C)
lists the 5 most-citedauthors in each of the three periods: Part A showsmost-cited
authors in 1968-71; Part B shows mostcited authors in 1978-81; Part C shows
most-cited authors in 1988-91. Each section of the table ranks authors
by the number of citations they received in theparticular period, and also
shows how many citationseach of the listed authors received in the subsequentand/or
previous periods. For example, Part A showsthat Agostini, the most-cited
author in 1968-71 with10 citations, also received 7 citations in 1978-81
and 2citations in 1988-91. Ehrenberg, who topped the 197881 list, also
received 4 citations in the previous periodand 14 citations in the subsequent
period. Leckenby,who topped the 1988-91 list with 46 citations, was notcited
in the earlier periods. In fact, all five most-citedauthors in 1988-91
were not cited at all in the earlierperiods. This indicates a generational
shift in the media-planing literature. Further (and similar to the find
Publication
1 968 - 1 971
Jrnl. of Advertising Research Jrnl. of MarkeUng Research Media/Scope
Journal of Marketing Management ScienceApplied StaVsVcs Public Opinion
Quarterly Operations Research
Table 6 Most-Cited Serial Publications in the Media Planning Research
Literature (Number of citations received)
1 978 - 1 981
N %
55 (43 7)
15 (11.9)
8 (6.3) 6 (4.8) 4 (3.2) 3 (2.4) 3 (2.4) 3 (2.4)
Publication
Jml. of Advertising Research Jrnl. of Marketing Research Journal of
MarkeVng Journalism Quarterly Public OpinionQuarterly Journal of Advertising
Management Science Advertising Age Media/Scope Journal of BroadcasVng Jml.
ofConsumer Research Operations Research
N %
115 (26.9) 83 (19.4) 17 (4.0) 13 (3.0) 13 (3.0) 13 (3.0) 13 (3.0) 13
(3.0) 12 (2.8) 12 (2.8) 12 (2.8) 11 (2.6)
Publication
1 988 - 1 991
Jml. of Advertising Research Jrnl. of Marketing Research Advertising
Age Journal of Advertising Marketing & MediaDecisions Management Science
Joumal of Media Planning Jml. of Consumer Research Journal of Marketing
WallStreet Joumal
N % 220 (27.8) 92 (11.6) 45 (5.7) 36 (4.6) 28 (3.5) 26 (3.3) 20 (2.5)
20 (2.5) 19 (2.4) 16 (2.0)
Table 7 Most-Cited Works of the Media Planning Research Literature
(BY number of citations r'?~iv=~`
1968-71
5 Agostini, Jean-Michel (1961), "How to Estimate Unduplicated Audiences,"
Joumal of Advertising
Research, 1 (3), 11-14.
5 Metheringham, Richard A. (1964), "Measuring the Net Cumulative Coverage
of a Print Campaign,"
Joumal of Advertising Research, 4 (December), 23-28.
Agostini, Jean-Michel (1962), "Analysis of Magazine Accumulative Audiences,"
Jouma/ of Advertising
Research, 2 (4), 24-27.
Broadbent, Simon R. (1966), "Media Planning and Computers by 1970:
A Review of the Use of Media
Models in Media Planning," Applied Statistics, 15 (3), 234-256.
Hofmans, P. (1966), "Measuring the Net Cumulative Coverage of Any Combination
of Media," Joumal of
Marketing Research, 3 (August), 269-278.
Little, John D. C. and Leonard M. Lodish (1969), "A Media Planning
Calculus," Operations Research, 1
(January-February), 1-35.
Zielske, Herbert A. (1959), "The Remembering and Forgetting of Advertising,"
Jouma/ of Marketing, 23
(March), 239-243.
7
1978-31
6 Little, John D. C. and Leonard M. Lodish (1969), "A Media Planning
Calculus," Operations Research, 17
(January-February), 1-35.
6 Metheringham, Richard A. (1964), "Measuring the Net Cumulative Coverage
of a Print Campaign,"
Joumal of Advertising Research, 4 (December), 23-28.
6 Swanson, Charles E. (1967), "The Frequency Structure of Television
and Magazines," Journal of
Advertising Research, 7 (June), 8-14.
5 Aaker, David A. (1975), ADMOD: An Advertising Decision Model," Jouma/
of Marketing Research, 12,
37-45.
5 Frank, Ronald E., James C. Becknell, and James D. Clokey (1971),
"Television Program Types," Joumal
of Marketing Research, 8 (May), 204-211.
5 Wells, William D. (1969), "The Rise and Fall of Television Program
Types," Joumal of Advertising
Research, 9 (September), 21-27.
12
9
6
1988-91
Leckenby, John D. and Shizue Kishi (1982a), "How Media Directors View
Reach/Frequency Model
Estimates," Journal of Advertising Research, 22 (3), 64-69.
Leckenby, John D. and Marsha Boyd (1984), "How Media Directors View
Reach/Frequency Model
Evaluation Standards," Joumal of Advertising Research, 24 (5), 43-52.
Leckenby, John D. and Shizue Kishi (1 982b), "Performance of Four Exposure
Distribution Models,"
Journal of Advertising Research, 22 (2), 35-44.
Rust, Roland T. and Robert Leone (1984), "The Mixed-Media Dirichlet
Multinomial Distribution: A Model
for Evaluating Television-Magazine Schedule," Journal of Marketing
Research, 21 (February), 89
99.
Kreshel, Peggy J., Kent M. Lancaster and Margaret A. Toomey (1985),
"How Leading Advertising
Agencies Perceive Effective Reach and Frequency," Jouma/ of Advertising,
14 (3), 32-38.
Lancaster, Kent M., Peggy J. Kreshel and Joya R. Harris (1986), "Estimating
the Impact of Advertising
Media Plans: Media Executives Describe Weighting and Timing Factors,"
Joumal of Advertising,
15 (3), 21 -29/45.
Leckenby, John D. and Shizue Kishi (1984), "The Dirichlet Multinomial
Distribution as a Magazine
Exposure Model," Joumal of Marketing Research, 21 (February), 100-106.
5 Metheringham, Richard A. (1964), "Measuring the Net Cumulative Coverage
of a Print Campaign,"
Joumal of Advertising Research, 4 (December), 23-28.
34
Jourrlal of CurrentIssues and Research in advertising
Table 8Most-Cited Media-Planning Authors
# of citesreceivedin 1968-7 Author
# of citesreceivedin 1978-8 Author
# of citesreceivedin 1988-91 Author
A: Most Cited Authors in 1968-71
10 J.M. Agostini5 Richard A. Metheringham4 A.S.C. Ehrenberg4 Simon
R. Broadbent4 William D. Wells
441
3
13113
B: Most Cited Authors in 1978-81
13 A.S.C. Ehrenberg13 William D. Wells12 Douglas J. Tigert12 Frank
Bass11 John D.C. Little
C: Most Cited Authors in 1988-91
2514
35
1454410
46 John D. Leckenby30 Shizue Kishi23 Roland T. Rust19 Marsha M. Boyd19
Kent Lancaster
ings related to most-cited works listed on Table 7), thethird period's
most-cited authors appear to be persons who have attempted to synthesize
and explainthe practices of media modeling, while those mostcited in the
first two periods had been concerned withdeveloping m~dels and explaining
media content.
Conclusions
The role of JMP
In the last 30 years, media planning has grown as asub-field of advertising.
Indicative of this development is the eight-year life of the Journal of
Media Planning, which appears to have had two useful functionsFirst, it
provided an exclusive publication outlet formedia planning researchers.
As the number of contributors to the advertising literature increases fasterthan
available journal space, the need for such spe
cialized publications becomes increasingly clear. Second, JMP was a
particularly useful outlet for advertising practitioners, some of whose
papers may not havebeen published in the older advertising journals because
they were not strictly empirical in nature.
The Journal of Media Planning was started by advertising educators
at Northwestern University who hada research interest in media planning.
Jack Sissorswas the foundinz editor of the journal. and Don
~ . . .
~chultz took over planning aspects of JMP after Sissorsretired. Sissors
called for the establishment of a journal devoted to media issues during
1985, the first yearof Northwestern's Media Symposium, and JMP cameinto
being the following year. Sissors had hoped thatsuch a journal would encourage
academia to becomeinterested in what media professionals were doingand
thus serve to encourage research into importantissues (Sissors 1995). Such
an approach no doubt contributed to the number of practitioners publishing
ar
Spring 1997
35
ticles in the journal during its life. The large numberof articles
appearing in IMP during 1986-91 did notnecessarily indicate a rush of new
and innovativethinking in the field of media planning. Rather, thejournal
served in part to encourage practitioners towrite a number of "position
papers" about variousmedia concepts. Especially during the 1980s, mediaplanning
issues were receiving increasing attention inthe trade press. With JMP's
founding in 1986, a number of practitioners found an outlet for airing
theirviews on matters related to media in greater depthand with somewhat
greater seriousness than that afforded through trade papers.
What if JMP had not been published? This is anappropriate question
to ask, given the journal's relatively short life span and the fact that
it accounted foralmost half of the articles coded in 1982-91 (see Table1).
What would the findings have been then? One istempted to reanalyze the
data from the third 10-yearperiod, after taking out all the JMP entries,
in whichcase the findings would indicate, in 1982-91, (a) a continued increase
in the relative number of academicians publishing media planning articles,
but a muchsmaller one than that of the previous decade (Table2); fewer
"position papers," coupled with no decreasein the relative number of "research"
articles (Table 3);fewer "appraisal of media" articles, but no dramaticchange
in the other categories (Table 4); fewer citations to "newspapers/magazines"
(Table 5), particularly to Advertising Age and Marketing ~ Media Decisions
(Table 6) and, of course, none to JMP! Othercitations would not change
much, since JMP authorscited fewer works than did authors in the other
journals (with practitioners citing the fewest) and academicians' citation
patterns were not different from onejournal to the next. Unfortunately,
this analysis issomewhat spurious, since it necessarily assumes thatthe
articles published in JMP would not have beenpublished in one of the other
journals instead. Morerealistically, some JMP articles would probably havefound
a home in one of the other journals (and wouldstill have become part of
our data), but in doing sothey might have displaced some articles that
underthe present circumstances did appear in one of theother journals.
And other JMP articles might haveappeared in the trade press (and not have
becomepart of our data). Table 1 shows that in 1981-92 thenumber of media
planning articles in IAR decreased,perhaps because of the presence of JMP
(and CIRA).With JMP out of the picture, one might expect moremedia-planning
articles in JAR.
Topics of media-planning research
The present study's findings indicate a decreasingtopical concentration
(i.e., greater topical diversity) inthe media-planning literature. In the
1960s, when thefield was relatively young, much was published onmedia selection
models, as many researchers triedtheir hand at discovering optimal ways
of selectingmedia from among an increasingly complex array ofchoices. As
the usefulness of many of these modelsbecame better-known over the years,
some modelsbecame more established and the flurry of modelingarticles subsided.
Will this downward trend continue?Perhaps not. The advent of new technologies
and newmedia could offer opportunities for fresh attempts atmedia modeling.
After all, advertising (and its study)tends to be trendy, and the modeling
trend may yetpick up steam. And even though the number of modeling articles
has decreased over the years, the maininfluences on the literature (i.e.,
most-cited authorsand most-cited works) are still model-related. Theemphasis
seems to have shifted from creating andtesting new models to discussing
existing models, ascertaining patters of model use and offering refinements.
It might be said that the media planning literature is entering a maturity
stage. For sure, the mostrecent list of most-cited authors shows a shift
to a newgeneration of media-planning researchers who take acomprehensive
approach to modeling. At the sametime, the recent incidence of more influential
writingson the usage of media planning models indicates ashift toward practical
concerns.
To what extent have journal authors in the last decade focused on areas
of media planning identifiedearlier by Turk and Katz (1992) as being in
a state ofchange? There is no indication in the academic literature of
intensive or consistent attention having beenpaid to many of these topics:
sales promotion, technology, buying services, organizational change, crossmedia
and cross-discipline packages, global expansion of media and others. These
are wide open areasin which academic researchers can make their mark,particularly
in view of the industry trend toward moving model development "in-house,
with individualagencies commissioning their own proprietary software systems"
(Turk and Katz 1992, p. 29).
Future contributions to the media-planning literature should come from
researchers trying to makesense of the ever-expanding variety of media
typesand vehicles. Turk and Katz (1992 p. 32) have pointedout that "as
more media options are offered to the
36
consumer, the task of the media planner, or strategist,will become
more complex and demanding." AsSchultz (1994, p. 2) has stated, mass conununicationmay
be giving way to "customized communications(discrete messages targeted
according to customerprofile)." The initial modelers of the media literaturehad
a few "big media" (national mass media) withwhich to concern themselves.
Now, "little media" (target-specific) are on the rise in an ever-expanding
media and vehicle universe. Consequently, quantitativeanalyses increasingly
will have to be supplementedby qualitative data and strategic planning
inputs willhave to come from more than one or two models.Clearly, there
appear to be increasingly diverse opportunities to conduct research and
publish in thissub-field of advertising.
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